Forecasting China's steel price trends through inventory: Steel prices are about to rise!

Last week, the prices of steel products in major markets across the country consolidated, and showed a certain degree of differentiation. From the perspective of various local markets, market prices have generally resisted falling. Among them, manufacturers in North China, Northwest China and other places have risen, while Northeast, Central China, East China, Southwest China, and South China have less fluctuations. The steel index fell slightly this time, while the cost index rose, indicating that the profit margins of steel mills have been reduced; this week's rebar futures range shocks have little impact on the spot market.

Among the main steel varieties, the rebar inventory in the current period was 8.9438 million tons, a decrease of 560,300 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.92%; the total inventory of wire rods and coils was 2,759,800 tons, a decrease of 194,700 tons from last week The decrease was 6.59%; the stock of hot rolled coil was 3.072 million tons, a decrease of 201.4 thousand tons from last week, and the decrease was 6.15%; the stock of cold rolled coil was 1.338 million tons, a decrease of 131,000 tons from last week The decrease was 0.97%; the stock of heavy plate was 1.0398 million tons, a decrease of 38,500 tons from last week, a decrease of 3.57%.

The price of black commodity disks fluctuated upwards this week, approaching the "two sessions", and the prices of raw materials were relatively firm. The price of billet billets in this morning was increased by 40 yuan / ton. Judging from the current situation, the steel stocks are accelerating and the bottom of finished steel prices has stabilized. Since May, the prices of building materials have fluctuated at the bottom. The prices of hot-rolled coils have continued to rise. Steel mills are more enthusiasm for production, while counter-cyclical adjustments continue to increase, and downstream demand for steel is continuously released. These factors will maintain a steady recovery in steel production in May. As supply pressures increase again in the later period, the market will worry or regenerate. The "two sessions" will be held soon, and the market expects the favorable policies to be strengthened, and the short-term steel price support will be stronger. Taken together, the steel market will show a stronger situation next week.